Halfway Through 2023, Market Update
The Austin Board of Realtors has released the market statistics for the month of June. The most important trend that I want to call out is that this is the fourth month in a row with increasing median sales price, solidifying a pattern of an upward trajectory. We are still below median sales price from the same time period last year, but remember that last June was right before we saw the market come to a virtual standstill after the meteoric rollercoaster rocket ship of Pandemic Insanity. Four months of increase, to me, is a good sign that the bottom of the market is behind us. If you were waiting for a "crash" to push you off the "should I buy now?" ledge, I don't anticipate an impending crash, but rather that the market is continuing to normalize.
Mortgage rates are still challenging affordability, and while I don't foresee any immediate significant relief there, I do believe that we will see rates come down somewhat into Q1 or Q2 of 2024. I really hate the saying, "marry the house, date the rate," but it does ring true. The minute that rates start to come down, demand will increase and home prices will skyrocket. Personally, I'd rather buy now while prices are relatively low and refinance later, instead of buying later when prices are high and competition is bananas. If you remember during the peak, buyers were often bidding $50-100K over list price just to get a home; requiring them to bring extra cash to closing. Now, buyers are paying a comparatively lower sales price, but adding the extra $50-100K to the overall cost, broken down into monthly chunks over the life of the loan.
Here are a few more points to note:
Total number of closed sales year-over-year across the market area was down 8.5% (3,147 total sales) and median sales price is down 9.6% Y-o-Y
The number of homes on the market jumped 38.4% to 9,631 active listings, causing housing inventory to skyrocket to 3.7 months of inventory, up 1.6 months from last June.
Median sales price rose 2.7% from the previous month (May 2023), which is the fourth consecutive month of rising prices.
From June 2019 to June 2023, median sales price is up just about 50%, disproving any notion that real estate in Central Texas has lost value, or crashed, or what have you. If you bought at peak Pandemic pricing, you'll just have to hold on a little longer to catch up compared to people who bought when things were relatively normal. Real estate continues to be one of the best ways to build wealth over time, despite larger macroeconomic trends that have us all pinching our pennies.
If you have questions about the statistics in your neighborhood or area, I'm happy to put together a quick market analysis for you to see where you stand. Remember that it's impossible to time the market, so ultimately the best time to buy or sell is when it makes the most sense for you and your particular situation.
